Arnold Palmer Invitational: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads north to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

This Week: Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

• Date: March 5-8, 2026
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• How to watch: NBC, Golf Channel, ESPN+, Peacock
• Purse: $20,000,000
• Defending champ: Russell Henley

Which skills the course rewards

Bay Hill plays as a 7,400-yard par 72 featuring Bermuda greens and thick Bermuda rough. It ranks as one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour annually—and in the event of high winds and dry conditions, as we saw in 2020 and 2022, it can play as the toughest course of the regular Tour season.

The cutline has been over-par in 13 of the last 14 years.

With tree-lined, narrow fairways on a long course, elite drivers of the golf ball have an upper hand at Bay Hill. Missed fairways will be inevitable, so playing out of the thick rough with short irons instead of long irons is a big advantage.

But recent changes to the course that opened things up have thrown a wrench into things. Accurate drivers of the ball have had the advantage the last two years.

Unlike PGA National last week, Bay Hill is not a second-shot course. Any tournament can be won with elite iron play, but with higher scores and the importance of driving it well here, you can get away with a mediocre week with the irons. Finding the center of greens provides value here instead of pin hunting, especially when conditions are tough.

What I value as much as anything with approaches this week is long-iron play. Bay Hill gives players more approaches from 200-plus yards than any other course on Tour. That makes proximity from 200-plus yards a key statistic this week. All four par 3s, all four par 5s and a few par 4s will likely require a long iron or metal this week at Bay Hill.

The Bermuda greens at Bay Hill are fast and pure, and the winner here tends to have a really strong week with the flat stick, including Kurt Kitayama, Scottie Scheffler and Russell Henley in the last three years. Each winner since 2015 gained strokes on the greens. What we’ve seen more often than not lately is that Bermuda history remains very relevant on Florida courses.  

The four par 5s are the real scoring opportunities at Bay Hill. All of them are reachable for longer players and allow eagle chances throughout the round. We’ve seen some tougher courses for par-5 scoring as of late, but Bay Hill is a place where you really want to get your birdies on those four holes and survive for the rest of the round.

How the model works

The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Off the Tee, 15% SG: Approach, 10% greens in regulation percentage, 10% SG: Putting (Bermuda), 10% SG: Par 5, 10% proximity: 200+ yards, 10% SG: Putting (Fast), and 10% SG: Total (Difficult).

Power Rankings

(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)

10. Chris Gotterup (+4200, +680, +300)

Model rank: 11^th

You have to imagine one of the best drivers on the planet should enjoy Bay Hill. Gotterup has already won twice this year and should have a decent chance at contending again as a debutant in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The putter needs to warm up. Ranks 1st in SG: OTT.

9. Pierceson Coody (+5800, +880, +380)

Model rank: 19^th

Coody actually played the API when he was on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023, and he impressed with a T14 fueled by a third-round 66. He’s been a ball-striking machine this year and has already logged six top-20 finishes in seven starts. Ranks 2nd in GIR%.

8. Nicolai Hojgaard (+6600, +980, +420)

Model rank: 13^th

I don’t think Nicolai is getting enough respect for his form and continues to be overlooked. He’s now gone T3-T6 in his last two starts and has moved up 63 spots in the world rankings since going to the UK last summer with consistent results. Ranks 4th in SG: APP.

7. Collin Morikawa (+3100, +510, +230)

Model rank: 10^th

Morikawa looked like the winner last year before Henley took over late on Sunday. With accuracy now valued more at Bay Hill, he is a much better fit around Bay Hill. The form clearly looks great as long as the short game continues to cooperate. Ranks 11th in GIR%.

6. Cameron Young (+3200, +540, +245)

Model rank: 6^th

After a disappointing start to the year, Young finally found some form at Riviera with a T7. Bay Hill seems like a nice fit for him, with finishes of T13 and T10 in his first two starts before struggling the last two years. The driver has been a bit underwhelming, which will be his key this week. Ranks 7th in SG: P.

5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2600, +450, +205)

Model rank: 5^th

Can Fitzpatrick finally get the putter going now that he moves to Bermuda greens? He couldn’t get anything to fall on the West Coast despite striking the ball beautifully. It was the only thing that kept him from contending for a win. He has loved Bay Hill. Ranks 7th in SG: APP.

4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1750, +315, +148)

Model rank: 4^th

It’s been business as usual for Fleetwood to start 2026, as he’s backed up the finish to 2025 and showcased that he is truly one of the game’s elite players. Fleetwood tends to love Bermuda greens, and he’s played Bay Hill nine times now, with a T3 in 2019 leading the way. Ranks 4th in SG: P (Fast).

3. Si Woo Kim (+3200, +510, +225)

Model rank: 3^rd

Kim was ridiculously hot to start the year before cooling off a bit in his last two events. Now, after finally getting a week off, Kim should be set up well to get things going again in Florida. He was awful at Bay Hill early in his career, but the results have steadily improved as of late. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.

2. Rory McIlroy (+960, +198, -104)

Model rank: 2^nd

It’s been eight years since McIlroy first won at Bay Hill, and it felt like he might bring home many more trophies here. It hasn’t happened, but this week feels like a great chance for him to put on a second red cardigan. The form looks great, but he’ll need to get the putter going. Ranks 3rd in SG: Par 5.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+300, -144, -300)

Model rank: 1^st

Scheffler’s T11 finish here last year was his worst at Bay Hill since he finished T15 as a debutant in 2020. He’ll be looking for his third red cardigan after winning in ’22 and ’24. Scheffler has managed strong results this year, but he needs to fix a trend of disastrous opening rounds. Ranks 1st in GIR%.

Top Photo Caption: The Arnold Palmer statue at Bay Hill. (GETTY IMAGES/Russell Lansford)