The Genesis Invitational: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational for the first time since 2024.

This Week: The Genesis Invitational

• Date: February 19-February 22, 2026
• Location: Pacific Palisades, California
• Course: The Riviera Country Club
• How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN +
• Purse: $20,000,000
• Defending champ: Ludvig Aberg (Held at Torrey Pines)

Which skills the course rewards

The Riviera Country Club was designed in 1926 by George Thomas and William Bell. It’s very
much a classical design with a myriad of interesting doglegs, wild contours and crazy green
complexes. As a par 71 at around 7,300 yards, Riviera is plenty long and a stern challenge
regardless of the weather conditions. When it does get fast and firm, it’s arguably the toughest
course on Tour.

A few factors affect the difficulty of Riviera. It features a lot of tricky runoffs around the
greens, along with the complexes themselves having as much slope as you’ll see outside of Augusta National. That makes everything from holing short putts to getting up-and-down from 30 feet away very difficult.

Course history has shown to be quite important at Riviera. From some of the hardest-to-hit
fairways on Tour to the green complexes that can take time to learn, it’s been beneficial to
go with players who have some course experience at the Genesis. We’ve seen plenty of repeat winners here in the past, like Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and Mike Weir.

With undulating, turning fairways, Riviera is a difficult course for driving accuracy. But the rough is some of the least penalizing, allowing inaccurate players to still contend. Attacking the course with power has helped in the past, but I’m not overly concerned off the tee this week either way.

The most effective way to navigate Riviera is with the irons. It’s another second-shot course, just like last week at Pebble Beach. There’s no avoiding needing to be strong with the irons to get birdie looks. The winner over the last 10 years has averaged around 10th in greens in regulation percentage, and the winners over the last six years have averaged around 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach.

But relative to an average course, the most important statistic at Riviera is scrambling around these diabolical greens. I like to look heavily at Strokes Gained: Around the Green to see who has been comfortable with their short game as of late, especially at TPC Scottsdale two weeks ago.

How the model works

The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 15% greens in regulation percentage, 15% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Around the Green, 10% SG: Total (Riviera), 10% Par 4 scoring, 10% driving distance, 10% SG: Putting (Poa), 10% proximity: 150-200 Yards, and 5% SG: Putting (Riviera)

Power Rankings

(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)

10. Xander Schauffele (+2250, +380, +178)

Model rank: 30^th

The results have still been inconsistent for Schauffele, but things started to look up toward the end at Pebble Beach. He needs to clean up the short game, but that’s never been his strong point. Schauffele has been very consistent at Riviera, never finishing worse than 33rd, with five top-15 finishes. Ranks 6th in distance.

9. Ryo Hisatsune (+11500, +1425, +580)

Model rank: 21^st

I’m not sure what Hisatsune needs to do to get a little respect. The rising star has now finished T2, T10 and T8 in his last three starts at very different golf courses. He’s an exceptional ball striker who has been driving it incredibly well, and his putter has started to warm up. Ranks 11th in SG: ARG.

8. Collin Morikawa (+3200, +500, +225)

Model rank: 19^th

Morikawa put together an absolutely special week of iron play to win at Pebble Beach for his first victory in more than two years. His results at Riviera have been great lately as well. The key will be his scrambling, which has been inconsistent and could cause problems. Ranks 3rd in SG: TOT (Riviera).

7. Matt Fitzpatrick (+3700, +560, +250)

Model rank: 12^th

Fitzpatrick has been right in the mix the last two weeks, but his short game has surprisingly held him back. I wouldn’t expect that to continue for someone of his caliber, so I’m going to ride the hot stretch with his ball striking. Finished T5 here in 2021. Ranks 10th in SG: APP.

6. Maverick McNealy (+4500, +670, +295)

Model rank: 3^rd

McNealy’s T29 finish last week was his worst in four starts this year. It only happened because of a poor week of putting, which is rare for the Stanford product. McNealy’s ball striking and consistency continue to be impressive, and he was T7 in his last start at Riviera. Ranks 2nd in SG: P (Riviera).

5. Rory McIlroy (+1475, +270, +130)

Model rank: 7^th

It was an odd week for McIlroy at Pebble, but his overall form still looked strong. He’ll need to eliminate the big mistakes, which are a common issue for him. McIlroy still hasn’t won at Riviera, so this is likely one of the few remaining tournaments he would love to finally hold the trophy. Ranks 3rd in distance.

4. Hideki Matsuyama (+2450, +395, +182)

Model rank: 9^th

Matsuyama is technically still the defending champion at Riviera since the tournament was held at Torrey Pines last year. He’s had plenty of success here throughout the years, and Matsuyama’s current form is incredible outside of the driver. If he can keep it in play, look out. Ranks 2nd in SG: ARG.

3. Patrick Cantlay (+2900, +465, +210)

Model rank: 6^th

The signs are still pointing upward for Cantlay as he tries to win for the first time since 2022. The putter looked positive, which has held back the former world No. 3 over the last year. Cantlay has finished 3rd and T4 here in his last two tries, along with a T4 as a debutant in 2018. Ranks 2nd in SG: TOT (Riviera).

2. Tommy Fleetwood (+2250, +365, +168)

Model rank: 2^nd

Fleetwood continues to impress, as he truly has ascended to one of the game’s best three or four players. He’s finished fourth or better in four straight Tour starts. Fleetwood’s results at Riviera have continued to improve, culminating in a T10 in 2024. Ranks 7th in SG: APP.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+300, -150, -320)

Model rank: 1^st

It almost feels impossible for Scheffler to finish poorly in a tournament at this point. He hasn’t finished worse than T8 since the Players Championship last year—only 10 players have beat him in a stroke play event since last July—and he’s managed T3 and T4 in his last two starts despite terrible opening rounds. Scheffler has been T7, T12, T10 and T3 at Riviera in his last four tries, and it feels like he’s ready to hold this trophy for the first time. Ranks 1st in SG: ARG.