AT&T Pebble Beach: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads back to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

This Week: WM Phoenix Open

• Date: February 12-February 15, 2026
• Location: Pebble Beach, California
• Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course
• How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN +
• Purse: $20,000,000
• Defending champ: Rory McIlroy

Which skills the course rewards

Pebble Beach Golf Links was designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant and opened in 1919. It has hosted the Tour’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 1947. The course has also hosted six U.S. Opens and one PGA Championship.

For the regular Pro-Am event, Pebble Beach plays as a par 72 at just over 7,000 yards. The shorter yardage and shorter rough makes it a much different challenge than the U.S. Open setup.

Spyglass Hill will receive one round for each player. It also plays at just over 7,000 yards at a par 72. Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed the course in 1966, and it’s a bit more of a standard track than Pebble Beach with average-sized fairways and greens.

The first obvious trait of Pebble Beach and the main thing to focus on this week is that it’s a second-shot golf course. Most advantages off the tee are neutralized.

While powerful players like Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods have dominated at Pebble, they’re
also dominant iron players. Distance is a bonus on holes that allow it, but much of
Pebble does not, so we need to focus on approaches.

With the tiny greens at Pebble Beach, simply having the ability to hit the middle of greens and relying on the putter leads to more success than pin hunting and finding tricky areas around the green.

I like to look at proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards as a key number for the field. The largest distribution of approaches at Pebble comes from there, and I’d expect that to be close to true at Spyglass as well. The distribution of approaches from wedge ranges this week is astronomically high compared to the Tour average.

The short game is a much bigger factor this week than usual. Knowing these Poa Annua greens and being good on that type of grass can be very important, and scrambling in general around these tiny greens is difficult. We’ve seen some masterful performances at Pebble with the short game from guys like Gary Woodland in the U.S. Open that really pushed them to victory.

How the model works

The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Approach, 15% greens in regulation percentage (small greens), 15% SG: Putting (Poa), 15% SG: Around the Green, 15% good drive percentage, 10% SG: Total (short courses) and 10% proximity: 100-150 yards.

Power Rankings

(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)

10. Ryan Gerard (+6100, +850, +370)

Model rank: 9^th

Gerard has opened the year with finishes of 2nd, T2 and T11, and his game seems well-suited for Pebble Beach. He’ll be a debutant, which is a bit of a concern, but Gerard is in the midst of a real breakout. Ranks 8th in SG: APP.

9. Maverick McNealy (+2900, +475, +220)

Model rank: 11^th

I’d imagine McNealy wants to win this tournament as much as any other on his schedule, and he was close in 2020 and 2021. He’s started the season well again, and he seems like one of the more dependable players on Tour right now with a high floor. Ranks 14th in SG: P.

8. Patrick Cantlay (+3800, +580, +265)

Model rank: 16^th

Cantlay seems close to breaking out of his slump, but the putter continues to be an issue at times. Playing on some poa greens that he loves should help that, and Cantlay has one of the best records at Pebble Beach you can find. Ranks 17th in greens in regulation percentage.

7. Rory McIlroy (+1300, +250, +122)

Model rank: 26^th

Rory’s win at Pebble last year was very impressive to me, because it’s simply not his best course fit, especially in this pro-am format. While his talent can easily overcome any course fit issues, it would surprise me if McIlroy finds a way to go back-to-back. Ranks 14th in greens in regulation percentage.

6. Matt Fitzpatrick (+3400, +540, +245)

Model rank: 7^th

Pebble Beach feels like a perfect course for Fitzpatrick, but he’s struggled here the last three years. However, he finished T6 in 2022, and I expect a similar result this week. His game has really been rounding into form since last summer. Ranks 7th in SG: ARG.

5. Justin Rose (+2800, +470, +215)

Model rank: 17^th

This might be too low for Rose after what we saw at Torrey Pines. I still worry a bit about his overall consistency, as he’s prone to losing it completely some weeks, but Pebble Beach has been his best course in recent years, with finishes of 1st, T11 and T3. Ranks 7th in SG: P.

4. Si Woo Kim (+2500, +405, +186)

Model rank: 4^th

It seems silly to bet against Kim at this point. He’s now logged finishes of T11, T6, T2 and T3 this year. I do worry about some fatigue after so many consecutive weeks in contention, but this is also a course that Kim has played very well the last two years. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.

3. Tommy Fleetwood (+2800, +445, +200)

Model rank: 3^rd

Fleetwood has never finished better than 22nd at Pebble Beach in four tries, but I think that will change soon. The Englishman took his game to a new level last year, and it really does feel like the wins will start flying in now that he has gotten over the hump. Ranks 3rd in SG: TOT on short courses.

2. Russell Henley (+3000, +475, +210)

Model rank: 2^nd

Behind Scheffler, I don’t think there’s anyone in golf right now who is more consistent than Henley. He hasn’t finished worse than 19th since last May, and he was T5 at Pebble Beach last year. Henley almost never hits the irons poorly, and the putter has become a strength as well. Ranks 4th in SG: APP.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+290, -154, -320)

Model rank: 1^st

Last week should be a reminder as to why Scheffler should always be first in any power rankings right now. Despite a disastrous opening round, he ended the tournament one shot out of a playoff. He’s finished T6 and T9 the last two years at Pebble Beach and should contend again. Ranks 1st in SG: TOT on short courses.