WM Phoenix Open: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open.

This Week: WM Phoenix Open

• Date: February 5-February 8, 2026
• Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
• Course: TPC Scottsdale
• How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN +
• Purse: $9,600,000
• Defending champ: Thomas Detry

Which skills the course rewards

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 running close to 7,300 yards, designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish in 1986. It was built specifically for the Phoenix Open and has hosted it since 1987. The number of fans and structures surrounding the course has grown each year, and the par-3 16th hole has become a complete spectacle, with thousands of fans filling grandstands.

Scottsdale plays as a conventional and balanced course—especially early in the round—with a lot of risk-reward holes and plenty of lengthy par 4s to challenge players. The winner typically sits 15-19-under (depending on the wind), but scores have been lower the last couple of years. The Bermuda greens tend to run extremely fast and are considered among the purest on Tour.

Despite being a desert course often associated with resort track tendencies, Scottsdale has become a proper challenge. Poor ball striking can really hurt you. Wayward tee shots are penalized severely, and these green complexes are difficult for players who miss the green. Players can face plenty of tricky scrambling spots from shaved areas around TPC Scottsdale.

Since the par 4s are long, the three par 5s at Scottsdale, along with the reachable par-4 17th, are the spots to attack the course. The Phoenix Open is one of the most important events of the year to score well on par 5s (and avoid a big number by being overly aggressive).

I look at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee at TPC Scottsdale as much as I will all year. You will see some huge numbers off the tee from the game’s best drivers as they can let it rip from most tee boxes while still needing dependable accuracy. The average drive length at Scottsdale is one of the longest on the schedule, a factor which is helped by the elevation.

Scottsdale is a well-balanced course with varied approaches, requiring players to stripe their irons from a variety of distances and find the center of the greens on the tougher, longer par 4s.

How the model works

The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 20% Strokes Gained: Approach, 15% Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 10% Strokes Gained: Total (TPC Scottsdale), 10% greens in regulation percentage, 10% par-5 scoring, 10% Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis) and 5% proximity: 150-200 yards.

Power Rankings

(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)

10. Jordan Spieth (+5600, +830, +385)

Model rank: 21^st

It’s hard to doubt Spieth at TPC Scottsdale. In nine starts here, he’s logged six top 10s, including four of his last five appearances. Spieth started the year with a solid showing in Hawaii, which is promising since he’s played well here even when out of form. Ranks 4th in SG: Total at TPC Scottsdale.

9. Maverick McNealy (+3300, +540, +260)

Model rank: 27^th

McNealy has begun 2026 with a couple of solid finishes, as he continues to be one of the more dependable players on Tour. He’s also one of the more balanced players, which translates well to TPC Scottsdale. McNealy has finished T9 and T6 here in his last two starts. Ranks 12th in SG: P (Poa Triv.)

8. Pierceson Coody (+5500, +840, +390)

Model rank: 5^th

We’re going right back to Coody. He delivered after last week’s appearance on the rankings with a T2 at Torrey Pines. Coody is an elite driver of the ball, and he’s paired it with great iron play as of late, which makes him a real threat to contend on many courses. Ranks 3rd in GIR%.

7. Brooks Koepka (+3200, +580, +310)

Model rank: 9^th

Koepka had a disaster on the greens last week, but the rest of his game looked sharp enough. He’s won twice in Phoenix, along with a T3 in his last start in 2022. It’s a wonderful course for him, and I feel that he’ll really feed off the crowd to contend. Ranks 3rd in SG: Total at TPC Scottsdale.

6. Hideki Matsuyama (+2500, +435, +210)

Model rank: 32^nd

The winner in Phoenix in back-to-back years in ’16 and ’17, Matsuyama has remained competitive here since. He’s begun the year with a T13 and T11, showcasing his usual elite iron play and scrambling. That will do the trick here, but he needs to keep the driver straight. Ranks 7th in SG: ARG.

5. Ben Griffin (+2900, +485, +230)

Model rank: 15^th

With Griffin’s improved driving, he now possesses the tools needed to contend at TPC Scottsdale. The ball striking has been iffy to start the year, but the short game has been elite, and you’d imagine he’ll shake off the rust soon. Ranks 10th in SG: ARG.

4. Xander Schauffele (+1900, +345, +172)

Model rank: 4^th

It was a disastrous start to the year for Schauffele with a bad missed cut at Torrey Pines, but I’m not going to overreact. Schauffele has never finished worse than T17 at Scottsdale in six starts, including five top 10s. It’s an impressive record that I don’t expect to end this week. Ranks 4th in par-5 scoring.

3. Si Woo Kim (+2700, +450, +215)

Model rank: 3^rd

Si Woo Kim is absolutely rolling. His worldwide results dating back to August have been stellar, and he’s gone T11, T6, T2 to start this year. Along with that, his results in Phoenix have steadily improved, with four straight finishes of 26th or better. Ranks 2nd in SG: APP.

2. Cameron Young (+2450, +430, +210)

Model rank: 2^nd

Young quietly managed a T22 at Torrey Pines last week to start his year, and the ball striking was right up to par with what you want to see from him. He possesses the exact type of game you want to win in Phoenix and has finished T12 and T8 his last two tries. Ranks 5th in SG: OTT.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+225, -186, -370)

Model rank: 1^st

The best player in the world is coming to a course that may just be his favorite on the PGA Tour schedule. Good luck. This was the site of Scheffler’s first win in 2022, and he’s added another win and a T3 since. This place is just perfect for him to dominate the field if putts fall. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.