The American Express: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets

For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 20 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads to La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West.

This Week: The American Express

• Date: January 22-25, 2026
• Location: La Quinta, California
• Course: PGA West
• How to watch: Golf Channel, ESPN +
• Purse: $9,200,000
• Defending champ: Sepp Straka

Which skills the course rewards

PGA West will be shown off by the Stadium Course, the Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club.

La Quinta has often been the easiest of the three courses and the one least worth writing about. It’s a simple resort course that most players will need to tear up to keep pace. There’s little in the way of trouble, and we often see first-round leaders come from La Quinta before they’re caught when playing the harder courses.

The Stadium Course is the host course and will be played twice, with every player teeing off there in the final round. Designed by Pete Dye, the Stadium Course boasts all of Dye’s classic concepts with deep bunkers and tons of risk-reward holes and shots throughout.

The Tournament Course is designed by Jack Nicklaus and plays about a stroke easier than Dye’s track. All three play as Par 72s and run under 7,200 yards. They have Bermuda greens that are mostly dormant at this time of year, so Poa will be the most prevalent grass on the greens. All three should be considered resort-styled courses yielding tons of birdies. The winner often gets close to 25-under.

We’ll mostly keep things simple at a tournament where it’s all about birdies and data is limited to just one course. Even though a lot of short, straighter hitters have won at PGA West, driving distance is still a huge advantage here if you aren’t hitting it in the water. The Par 5s are very scoreable, and the longest hitters can turn these medium-distance Par 4s into simple wedges.

This is often one of the hardest tournaments to predict on the schedule. A lot of that can be attributed to it turning into a putting contest. Putting is naturally a skill that is hard to predict week to week. With the ball striking demands on this course being quite low, we’ll see some random names pop up high on the leaderboard that catch fire with the flat stick and contend.

Of the last seven winners, six have finished the week in the top nine in Strokes Gained: Putting. Of the last nine winners, seven have finished the week in the top nine in Strokes Gained: Approach. Those will be the primary numbers to look at.

How the model works

The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 25% SG: Approach (Easy Scoring), 25% SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis), 15% SG: Off the Tee, 10% Birdie Percentage (Easy Scoring), 10% SG: Total (Easy Scoring), 10% Par 5 Scoring, and 5% Proximity: 100-150 Yards.

Power Rankings

(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)

20. Mac Meissner (+13000, +1600, +700)

Model rank: 2^nd

A dart throw to start things off, Meissner played well last week, outside of a short stretch during the gustiest winds on Friday. Continues to pop in the model on these easier, short courses. Ranks 11^th in SG: APP.

19. Daniel Berger (+6500, +1000, +475)

Model rank: 26^th

Berger finished T6 last week in a great start to the season. It feels like his play last year was a bit overlooked, as he continues to return to form after a few injury-plagued seasons. Three-for-three in cuts made at PGA West.

18. Davis Thompson (+6500, +1000, +475)

Model rank: 24^th

It was a disappointing year for Thompson in 2025, who is still looking for a real breakout season. But he found some form in the fall, and I’m still a firm believer in his talent. This has been a nice tournament for him, with finishes of 2^nd in 2023 and 21^st in 2024.

17. Patrick Rodgers (+8000, +1200, +550)

Model rank: 13^th

Rodgers now has finishes of 6^th, 7^th and 3^rd in his last four starts. He tends to pop up randomly and find form for a few weeks at a time, and the majority of Rodgers’ strong play comes at short, easier courses. Ranks 4^th in SG: OTT.

16. Ludvig Aberg (+2500, +450, +225)

Model rank: 94^th

Down to World No. 18 now, Aberg doesn’t grade out well this week because he’s played poorly on easy courses in the past. But I can’t fully ignore one of the best players in the world. The key will be finding some life with a cold putter.

15. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000, +650, +310)

Model rank: 54^th

The former U.S. Open champion found some serious form late in 2025 after poor play for much of the last two years. While we usually think of him enjoying tough courses, he does have the ability on the greens to go low. Ranks 5th in par-5 scoring.

14. Pierceson Coody (+7500, +1100, +500)

Model rank: 10^th

It seems like Coody is really beginning to settle into life as a PGA Tour pro. A T13 last week at the Sony in tough conditions was a great sign, especially since it’s not a great course fit. If he can keep the driver in play, Coody has the tools to tear up PGA West. Ranks 3^rd in SG: OTT.

13. Michael Thorbjornsen (+4500, +750, +370)

Model rank: 47^th

Similar to Coody in some ways, Thorbjornsen has been steadily trending in the right direction and has gotten in contention a few times in the fall. He also does most of his damage with the driver, but he also has a high ceiling with approach play. Ranks 1^st in SG: OTT.

12. Robert MacIntyre (+2500, +475, +235)

Model rank: 52^nd

MacIntyre continues to surprise me with his consistent level of play, but I’m not fully on board with his price this week at PGA West. The putter has been hot, but some of his big misses just drop him below the favorites for me.

11. Adam Scott +6500, +950, +450)

Model rank: 3^rd

It’s weird to see Scott playing tournaments like the Sony and AmEx, but the veteran Aussie is trying to play his way back into signature events. He grades out shockingly well in the model, but we don’t have any course history to draw back on.

10. Patrick Cantlay (+3000, +500, +260)

Model rank: 40^th

Despite what felt like a lackluster year, Cantlay managed to sneak into the Tour Championship and delivered with a T2 finish. PGA West has been a great course for Cantlay to kickstart his season, with finishes of 2^nd, 9^th and T5 since 2021.

9. Taylor Pendrith (+4000, +700, +330)

Model rank: 8^th

It feels like Pendrith jumps out as a contender every year at the AmEx, yet he’s now missed the cut in all three tries. Maybe this will be the year. He’s played very strong golf of late and managed a quiet T6 last week in Hawaii. Ranks 8^th in SG: P.

8. Russell Henley (+2500, +475, +230)

Model rank: 12^th

Henley hasn’t teed it up here since 2022, maybe partly because of his struggles at PGA West. It should theoretically fit him well, but he’s oddly struggled with his ball striking at the Stadium Course. Ranks 5^th in birdie percentage.

7. Si Woo Kim (+3500, +600, +290)

Model rank: 11^th

The 2021 AmEx winner hasn’t found the magic at PGA West since, but the results have still been solid enough. He also opened up the season with a quality T11 last week. His week will likely be determined by the flat stick finding any success. Ranks 8^th in SG: OTT.

6. Ben Griffin (+2000, +370, +185)

Model rank: 28^th

Griffin has been playing PGA West well since even before ascending to one of the top players in the game, finishing T7 last year and T9 in 2024. He was T19 last week in Hawaii but struggled a bit with the irons. Griffin usually plays these easier courses very well.

5. Akshay Bhatia (+8000, +1200, +550)

Model rank: 4^th

Bhatia has struggled in three tries at PGA West with three missed cuts, but I don’t think it will continue. He’s great on easy courses and makes a ton of birdies. The form was superb late in the year, and I’m expecting a big breakout in 2026. Ranks 5^th in SG: APP.

4. J.T. Poston (+6500, +950, +450)

Model rank: 7^th

Poston has finished T12, T11, T6 and T25 in his last four starts at PGA West. He tends to be volatile with the irons, but he played well to end the year and is almost exclusively an easy-course specialist. Ranks 6^th in SG: P.

3. Sepp Straka (+4500, +700, +340)

Model rank: 5^th

The defending champion tends to be a boom-or-bust player, as we saw plenty during a two-win 2025. He was also T4 here in 2020, showing some serious love for the tournament. This feels like a great price. Ranks 4^th in SG: APP.

2. Sam Burns (+2500, +450, +225)

Model rank: 6^th

All signs point to Burns being in for a big 2026. He played some lovely golf starting last May, and he’s finished 11^th or better in three of five tries at PGA West. Burns has generally been much better on easy courses like PGA West. Ranks 1^st in SG: P.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+280, -150, -280)

Model rank: 1^st

Scheffler, of course, finds himself at 1^st in the model and the rankings, but this is probably the tournament I’d be least comfortable picking him in due to all of the putting variance. He’s still managed four top 25s in five tries, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t win the birdie fest.